Headline for .     Since the beginning of 2018, despite the Covid-19 pandemic, currencies around the world are generally down against the United States dollar.     
World Currency Observer
World Currency Observer

Exchange Rates: one year high and low

August 2, 2025 (see August 20 update below). Next update: September 1, 2025. Visit Search to look at past issues of World Currency Observer (brochure edition).

As it indicated it would do by August 1, 2025, the United States has confirmed its calculations of tariff rates on all goods imports into the United States from every country in the world, all of which are due to take effect by August 7, 2025, and all of which are a minimum of 10%. Around 100 countries (including European Union countries) will see their tariff rates go up to at least 15%., and, among these, around 25 countries will have rates that will be higher than this 15% level. Another feature of the United States August 1 update that will increase the tariff impact is the suspension of duty-free de minimis treatment of imports from all countries, which broadens the applicability of the tariff regimes to smaller import shipments, which had been temporarily exempted from tariffs, to allow time for modifications of United States tariffs administrative procedures to efficiently handle these transactions.

(The summaries below of exchange rate activities for July 2025 go until close-of-business on Friday, August 1, just after the United States announcements of tariff updates. As noted above, full implementation of all of the announced United States tariffs is to take effect by August 7, 2025.) The Canada dollar was down by 1.25% against the US$ in July 2025, and is up by 4.25% since the trade war began in late January 2025. The Dominican Republic peso was down by 2.75% in July against the US$ (down by roughly the same amount since this time last year). In South America during July 2025, the Brazil peso was down by 2.5% against the US$ (but up by 8% since the start of the trade war), while the Chile peso, affected by the announcement of US tariffs on copper imports from everywhere in the world, was down by 5.25%. The list of South America currencies that rose against the US dollar in July 2025 includes the Paraguay guarani (up by nearly 7.25%) and the Suriname dollar (up by 4.5%). The Argentina peso was down by 8.5% in July against the US$, touching just below the 1400 pesos/1$US part of the 1000-1400 band announced in April 2025 as part of the flotation of the peso, and is down by 38% against the US dollar since this time last year. (On the last day of July, the IMF announced that Argentina had been assessed as ready for a US$2 billion disbursement under the IMF Extended Fund Facility, in support of its flexible exchange rate). The Euro, after moving up by 3.5% against the US$ in June 2025, was down by 2% in July 2025, and up by around 6.25% above its value at this time last year. The United Kingdom pound was down by 3.25% against theUS$ in July 2025 (the pound is up by 1.75% against the US$ in June 2025). The Türkiye lira was down by 2.5% against the US$ in July 2025, and down by 23% since this time last year (with inflation of more than 30%). The Albania lek was one Europe currency that rose against the US$ in July 2025, up by 2.75%, and is up by 13% against the US$ since the start of the trade war. The Kazakhstan tenge was down sharply by 4.75% in July 2025 against the US$, with indications that the overall Kazakhstan trade surplus has been declining - there are reports that the central bank is intervening to offset the weakness of the tenge. (Kazakhstan inflation is currently around 12% and there are reports that the government has indicated it expects a future decline in the US dollar value of the tenge). The Russia rouble was down by 3.45% in July, but up by 24% since the start of the trade war. Currencies of other former USSR countries were stronger against the US$ in July 2025. Among Africa countries, the majority of currencies in July 2025 were generally down against the US$, in many cases giving back rises of 1.5% or more which occurred in June. Among the exceptions to currency weakening in Africa: the Zambia kwacha was up by 2.5% against the US$ in July 2025 (after an 11% rise in June 2025), the São Tomé and Príncipe dobra was up by 2% (São Tomé and Príncipe has just been deemed eligible for an immediate International Monetary Fund Extended Credit Facility disbursement) , and the Tanzania shilling was up by 3.5% in July 2025 (up by 5.5% since the beginning of the trade war). Currencies in Asia generally declined slightly in July against the US dollar, and in many cases, such as the South Korean won, the Australia dollar and the New Zealand dollar, giving back similar-sized gains made in June 2025. The Japan yen was down by nearly 3% against the US$ in July, and is up by 5.25% against the US$ since the start of the trade war at the end of January 2025. Also down in the month of July were the Philippines peso (3%) and the Taiwan dollar (down by 2.5%, but up by 9.5% against the US$ since the start of the trade war.) The Afghanistan afghani was up by 3.75% against the US$ in July 2025, after falling by 4.5% in June 2025. The India rupee was down by 1.75% against the US$ in July 2025; there was almost no net change in the Pakistan rupee in July against the US$. The US$ price of gold was up nearly 2.5% in July 2025, and is up by 38% since this time last year. World copper prices were down by 2.5% on the month, and up by 5% since the beginning of the trade war in late January (copper is the object of new United States tariffs in July 2025). The US$ price of Brent crude oil was up by 3.5% in July 2025, and the price of American crude oil was down by 7.5%, but oil prices in general are down around 14% since this time last year.

August 20, 2025 update

The list of United States tariffs on countries around the world was, generally, finalized on August 7, 2025 (although one more significant development was the August 9 announcement of a three-month postponement, by China and the United States, of restoration of the planned super-high tariffs, which would have put mutual tariffs over 100%). While it is too soon for markets to fully assess the exchange rate impact of the August 7 tariffs, there was a great deal of attention to the anticipated impact of tariffs on the countries at the top of the list, among these being; the 50% tariff on Brazil (a huge impact expected on United States imported food products), the 50% tariff on India (among other things, expected to lead to closer trading ties between India and China); the 39% tariff on Switzerland, which far exceeds the 15% tariff on the surrounding European Union countries - Eastern Europe countries which are not members of the European Union are also subject to tariffs close to the Switzerland level; and the 41% tariff on Syria, which has recently saw an end to a multi-year civil war.

There have been many remarks in the financial press on the observation that, since the start of 2025, the net movement of United States stock indices has been up, while the net movement of the external value of the United States dollar has been downward. WCO remarks that, within the 2025 year so far, there have been some interesting movements in exchange rates, including the general strength in the US dollar in July, followed by weakness so far in August. WCO also remarks that there is a broad worldwide context to the observed movements, particularly for American stock markets, because stock markets have generally strengthened all over the world (movements to stocks in many countries as a reaction to the general decline in interest rates payable on alternative assets?). In any case, the final story for exchange rates for 2025 will have to await the impact of the above-mentioned new tariff list – not just the level of the individual tariffs, but that just the existence of the August 7 list may imply a reduction in the pattern of revisions to tariff levels so far in 2025 (one reason, however, not to expect more stability in tariff rates is that, in several cases, it has been implied that the choice of rates was partly dependent on non-economic factors, which can change at any time.)

(World Currency Observer will next be updated on September 1, 2025. Visit Search to look at past issues of World Currency Observer (brochure edition). For permission-to-quote enquiries, e-mail World Currency Observer at WCO@briargreen.com.)